With just four days remaining before Election Day, a new poll commissioned by Democrat Jamie Davis‘ campaign shows Louisiana’s U.S. Senate race deadlocked, with Davis and Republican Congresswoman Julia Letlow each receiving 45% support among likely voters.
The survey, conducted by Hart Research Associates on October 28 and 29, found 10% of voters still undecided in the contest to succeed Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy. The firm interviewed 502 likely Louisiana voters using landline calls, cell phones and text-to-web responses. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
The result represents a narrowing of the margin reported in the campaign’s previous surveys. In September, Hart found Letlow leading Davis 48% to 44%, with 8% undecided. A July survey from Public Policy Polling showed an identical four-point advantage for Letlow, 41% to 37%, though nearly a quarter of respondents were undecided at the time.
The Bayou Progressive previously reported that the September results suggested a surprisingly competitive but largely static contest, with Davis struggling to close the remaining gap despite the race tightening considerably compared with Louisiana’s usual Republican margins in federal elections. The latest numbers mark the first time the Davis campaign has released polling showing the candidates tied.
There is one important distinction in the comparison: Hart’s September survey initially found Letlow ahead by four points, but her advantage grew to 51% to 45% after voters who were initially undecided were asked which candidate they leaned toward. The Davis campaign’s latest release uses that six-point margin as its September benchmark, while the October memo reports a 45–45 result on its initial ballot test.
Both surveys were commissioned by Davis’ campaign, and no comparable independent general-election poll has been publicly released.
Independents and Name Recognition Offer Additional Clues
Beyond the topline result, Hart’s latest findings point to two developments that have figured prominently in Davis’ campaign: his support among voters unaffiliated with the major parties and his growing statewide name recognition.
Among registered independents, Davis leads Letlow 53% to 30%, with 17% undecided. Hart’s September survey also found Davis ahead among nonpartisan voters, though by a smaller 47% to 41% margin. The latest memo does not disclose the number of independent respondents, making it difficult to assess the precision of that subgroup result or determine how directly the two findings can be compared.
The poll also finds Davis considerably better known than he was in September. His name recognition has increased from 41% to 52%, while Letlow’s stands at 77%, down from 82% in the previous survey.
That recognition gap remains substantial, but Hart reports that among the 47% of respondents familiar with both candidates, Davis holds a double-digit lead. The firm did not publish the exact breakdown for that group, although its September memo similarly reported a sizable Davis advantage among voters who knew both candidates.
The findings carry particular significance for a Democrat running against a Republican nominee with considerably greater political visibility and the endorsement of President Donald Trump. Davis, a Tensas Parish farmer and former police juror, has built much of his campaign around affordability, healthcare access and presenting himself as an alternative to partisan politics.
Hart’s October memo also reports that Trump’s statewide favorability stands at 48%, with 40% of respondents holding a very negative opinion of the president compared with 33% who view him very positively. The firm argues that dissatisfaction with Trump and congressional Republicans has contributed to a more competitive political environment, including in states that supported the president overwhelmingly in 2024.
A Different Kind of Midterm Electorate
The poll arrives alongside unusually high early voting participation across Louisiana, particularly among Black voters and registered Democrats.
More than 520,000 Louisianans had cast ballots by the close of in-person early voting on October 27, an increase of approximately 38% over the comparable 2022 midterm total of 377,428. Continued absentee ballot returns pushed the statewide total to more than 527,000 through October 29, according to Louisiana Secretary of State data.
Among voters who had participated by October 27, approximately 221,000 were registered Democrats, compared with 205,000 Republicans. Black voters accounted for approximately 179,000 ballots, or 34% of early participation, compared with roughly 26% during the 2022 midterms.
Those figures represent a notable change in the composition of Louisiana’s early electorate, although party registration and voter demographics do not establish which candidates received those votes. They also leave unanswered how the electorate arriving at polling places on November 3 will compare with those who voted early.
The increased participation nevertheless adds another dimension to the closing days of a Senate contest that has attracted growing attention as Democrats seek to compete beyond their traditional strongholds.
Davis has also demonstrated unexpected fundraising strength in the final months of the campaign. As The Bayou Progressive reported earlier this month, he raised nearly $2 million during the third quarter, compared with approximately $683,000 for Letlow.
Letlow has also benefited from substantial independent spending, including more than $10.2 million from the Accountability Project super PAC. While most of that money was spent during the Republican nomination contest, the group has reported another $768,500 in general-election advertising expenditures supporting Letlow, including three purchases totaling that amount during the final week of October.
Davis, meanwhile, launched his first major statewide advertising campaign on October 14, with commercials focused on economic concerns and Letlow’s financial dealings.
For Davis, the latest survey provides another opportunity to argue that his campaign’s outreach has translated into broader statewide support.
“I declared for this seat in December and committed to talking to everyone because everyone should be represented and heard. Those seeds we planted are starting to show signs of a harvest,” Davis said in a statement accompanying the poll.
“But my focus isn’t polls. I’m 100% focused on the people and their issues and they’re focused on high prices, healthcare, and corruption.”
The central question heading into Tuesday is whether the tighter margins reported in Davis’ campaign polling will hold when Louisiana voters cast their ballots. Hart’s latest survey describes an electorate divided evenly between the two nominees, but the absence of independent polling and complete October toplines leaves uncertainty about the magnitude of any shift.
What is clear is that a race once discussed largely in terms of Louisiana’s overwhelming Republican advantage now enters its final weekend with a new campaign survey reporting a dead heat, an unusually large early electorate and considerably more attention than the state’s recent Senate contests have typically attracted.
Read the full polling memo here:
